Ukrainian Defense Ministry capture
One day after The New York Times reported that President Joe Biden had authorized Ukraine to use American-made Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) against targets within Russia, a Ukrainian artillery unit launched eight of these 3,700-pound precision-guided rockets at a large Russian munitions depot in Bryansk Oblast, located 60 miles from the Russia-Ukraine border.
The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs asserted that local air defenses intercepted five of the GPS-guided rockets, each loaded with nearly 1,000 grenade-sized bomblets. However, a video surfaced online on Tuesday morning shows a large fire at the Bryansk facility, indicating substantial damage from the bomblet barrage.
With the capability to deploy its most advanced American-made munitions against Russian targets, “Ukraine might inflict much more damage,” stated Tatarigami, founder of the Ukrainian analysis group Frontelligence Insight. However, there are considerable limitations.
First, reports indicate that the White House permits strikes only in and around Kursk Oblast in western Russia, where a Ukrainian force of approximately 20,000 is defending a 250-square-mile salient against a Russian-led corps comprising over 50,000 troops from Russia and North Korea. The target of the recent ATACMS strike, the 67th Main Missile, and Artillery Directorate Arsenal is located just west of Kursk.
Secondly, it is likely that not many of the 190-mile-range ATACMS remain in Ukraine’s arsenal. There may have been only two shipments of these 1990s-era missiles: one in late 2023 and another in March. Together, these shipments might have included fewer than 50 ATACMS. Over the past year, the Ukrainian military has conducted at least eight ATACMS strikes, most of which involved multiple missiles.
These initial shipments of ATACMS may need to grow. The Biden administration retains the authority to transfer billions of dollars in surplus American weaponry to Ukraine and has committed to using this authority before President-elect Donald Trump—who has expressed opposition to further aid for Ukraine—takes office in late January.
This funding could potentially cover the replacement of a significant number of ATACMS, each valued initially at around $1 million.
However, the U.S. Army is focused on preserving its stockpile of ATACMS—currently numbering in the hundreds—until the new Precision Strike Missile, a modern replacement for the ATACMS, is widely available. As recently as 2021, the Army conducted tests on some of its oldest ATACMS, dating back to the early 1990s, to verify their operational status.
Given the limited supply, Kyiv may opt to reserve its ATACMS for the most critical targets, whose destruction could have a significant impact on Russian military capabilities. “The concentrated use of long-range weapons can inflict disproportionate damage against selected targets, thereby creating exploitable opportunities in Russia’s defenses,” explained Jack Watling, an analyst at the Royal United Services Institute in London.
The attack on the munitions depot in Bryansk exemplifies an effective ATACMS operation. Destroying the arsenal could disrupt the supply of ammunition to Russian and North Korean forces in Kursk, potentially creating a firepower gap in that area. “The question is whether the Ukrainian military can take advantage of the gap created,” Watling noted.
While a surge of ATACMS is not anticipated now that Ukraine has broader authorization to use the missiles, rocket strikes on vital infrastructure, such as supply depots and air bases in and around Kursk, are expected in the coming weeks.
By late January, two scenarios seem likely. Ukraine may deplete its ATACMS supply, and the incoming Trump administration might reduce or even terminate U.S. aid to Ukraine, potentially revoking permission for the use of American-made weapons against Russian targets.
This would not signify the end of Ukraine’s deep-strike capabilities. Kyiv has been developing its own strike munitions—including cruise and ballistic missiles and drones—which can be deployed without prior approval. “We will use them all,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said.
However, ATACMS are particularly effective, albeit in limited quantities. Ukraine is likely to experience a brief but highly impactful period of ATACMS strikes before the missiles are exhausted, the political dynamics shift and Ukrainian forces must increasingly depend on domestically produced munitions.
